Some say the bold days of global trade are over: it's only clouded by caution. Progress still belongs to those who are looking outward, adapting faster, reaching further. The proliferation of risks is forcing large companies to adapt their analysis frameworks and deploy new resources, often in real time, or even to rethink their strategy. How can large European groups come out on top? Insights from multinational executives and partners at the Coface Country Risk Conference 2026 .
Experts:
- Estelle BRACHLIANOFF, CEO of Veolia
- Jean-Dominique SENARD, Chairman of the Renault Group
- Xavier HUILLARD, CEO of Vinci
- Sandra SANCIER-SULTAN, Senior Partner at McKinsey
When it comes to risk mapping, the years go by and look much the same for large corporations.
As has been the case for more than four years, geopolitical risk ranks far ahead in the top three threats identified by their leaders, ahead of technological risk – which can also be seen as an opportunity (see box on AI) – and risk related to the energy transition.
notes Sandra Sancier-Sultan, Senior Partner at McKinsey.
If there is a silver lining to this situation, it is that the persistence of a highly volatile and uncertain environment has fostered a form of resilience within the leadership teams of multinational firms, thereby mechanically strengthening their adaptive capabilities.
The end of "happy globalisation"
Yet, recent events (the conflict in Ukraine, the trade war, the unravelling of historic alliances, etc.) have greatly disrupted the way organisations now approach this type of risk. "These risks have undoubtedly grown in intensity," acknowledges Xavier Huillard, Chairman and CEO of the Vinci Group, despite his long-standing experience in crisis management. "We have operated in Africa for over 90 years, where coups d'état occur on a regular basis," he points out.
For Jean-Dominique Senard, Chairman of car manufacturer Renault Group, the shift goes even deeper: "We have moved from the era of 'happy globalisation' to that of 'bloc-to-bloc confrontation'”, with each bloc bringing together countries that are “fairly homogeneous in economic, political and military terms."
The consequences of this shift are numerous: the adoption of policy packages with potentially significant economic impacts; strategies to secure access to critical resources such as rare earths; unilateral withdrawal of agreements or commitments involving historic allies; undermining of the principle of freedom of enterprise; threats to the security of major international trade routes; etc.
We now operate in an increasingly complex world, in which even a minor geopolitical flare-up can jeopardise business activity
sums up Jean-Dominique Senard.
Multi-local actors
Admittedly, some groups may be partially immune, given the nature of their activities. "As we provide essential services that are critical to the population, demand remains as strong as ever in the various countries where we operate," says Estelle Brachlianoff, Chair and Chief Executive Officer of Veolia, which has just completed a €2.6 billion acquisition in the United States, for ex. However, this new macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape translates into tangible consequences for the operational and strategic steering of nearly all organisations.
The days of highly detailed five-year strategic plans are over.
points out Sandra Sancier-Sultan.
In an environment defined by repeated shocks, agility has become a non-negotiable requirement. This shift has driven organisations to favour decentralized operating models. "Being a multi-local player gives us to the agility we need to achieve our objectives," says Estelle Brachlianoff, who also emphasises the importance of "diversification as a means of de-risking the group".
However, such an approach is not without risks. "We must be careful not to spread ourselves too thin," continues Estelle Brachlianoff, while Xavier Huillard insists that "being highly decentralised must not undermine overall consistency". In this regard, those involved believe it is essential to rely on robust and stable governance, led by executives capable of not overreacting to the slightest shock.
"If conditions ultimately warrant it, the company must be able to reverse course - without triggering dramatic consequences," notes Vinci’s CEO. In this regard, the recent forced withdrawal of Western companies from Russia have served as a reminder that such a scenario is anything but theoretical.
Keeping up the pace
In an environment marked by persistent uncertainty, pausing major initiatives until the situation becomes clearer may seem appealing... except for the leaders of large corporations. "In my view, the greatest risk is inaction," asserts Estelle Brachlianoff. Maintaining the right pace is essential."
Sharing this conviction, Renault Group’s CEO emphasises the need for continous innovation and for leveraging best practices developed abroad, including China, where the company has drawn inspiration from certain production methods to reduce manufacturing costs for its new electric Twingo, built in Europe and priced below €20,000.
The (still) mixed progress of AI within large groups
Yet, aware of the social risk posed by the widespread use of artificial intelligence and the need to anticipate it, many senior executives see this technological revolution primarily as an opportunity. "It will generate significant construction needs, particularly for data centres, and lead us to undertake reengineering work, which always adds value," notes Xavier Huillard.
"AI will enable organisations to operate more efficiently," agrees Estelle Brachlianoff. Through its productivity gains and the quality improvements it brings to products and processes, this technology could also offer, according to Jean-Dominique Senard, a tremendous opportunity for Europe "to catch up, in a way, with China".
However, only a relatively small number of multinationals have fully embraced the shift. According to McKinsey, only around 10% have already moved from the AI experimentation phase to larger-scale deployment – and even then, adoption remains limited to specific parts of the organisation.
Many executives are critical of the surge in their IT investments, which they feel has not yet translated into tangible benefits.
notes Sandra Sancier-Sultan.
> Catch up Renault Group's testimony on how they manage their risks with Coface for +50 years
